Precursors, by the numbers...thus far

So every year, when the various awards bodies and the critics and the top ten lists get announced, I get my little XL spreadsheet tracking thing and tally up the numbers just to see who is leading in the race. It is all very mathematical, with wins from certain precursors counting as higher than others, and noms from some counting as higher. Than others as well. Plus the top tem list add a completely different dimension.

So in the main 6 categories here are the top five….and yes there are a lot of ties…..it happens in maths! Ask Barbara Streisand.

Best Picture

1 – Slumdog Millionaire
2 – WALL-E
3 - The Dark Knight
4 – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
5 – Milk

(Frost/Nixon, The Wrestler, Happy-Go-Lucky, Doubt, ad Rachel Getting Married round out the top 10 in that order)

Could this be the final 5? Could very well be…. Keeping optimistic about WALL-E’s chances

Best Director

1 – Danny Boyle (way out ahead)
2 – Gus Van Sant
3 – Christopher Nolan
4 – David Fincher
5 – Ron Howard

(Stephen Daldry, Andrew Stanton, Jonathan Demme, Mike Leigh and Sam Mendes round out the top 10)

Can Stanton get in (How cool would it be?)

Best Actress

1 – Sally Hawkins
2 – Anne Hathaway (coming in for the kill)
3 – Meryl Streep
4 – Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
5 – Angelina Jolie

(Melissa Leo, Kate Winslet (The Reader), Kristen Scott Thomas, Cate Blanchett and Michelle Williams round out the top 10)

Is this Kates year? Sally’s? Anne? Or will Meryl finally win her 3rd?


Best Actor

1 - Sean Penn
2 - Mickey Rourke
3 – Richard Jenkins
4 – Frank Langella
5 – Clint Eastwood

(Leonardo DiCaprio, Brad Pitt, Michael Fassbender, Dustin Hoffman, and Josh Brolin (W) round out the top 10)

Give or take Leo this looks like the final 5 to me. I think it will be either Richard or Leo who face the axe.

Best Supporting Actress

1 – Penelope Cruz
2 – Viola Davis
3 – Marisa Tomei
tie
3 – Rosemarie DeWitt
5 – Kate Winslet (The Reader
tie
5 – Amy Adams (Doubt)
tie
5 – Taraji P. Henson

I think these are the seven players in the game, unless Winger makes a surprise.

Best Supporting Actor

1 – Heath Ledger
2 – Robert Downey, Jr.
3 – Josh Brolin
4 – Philip Seymour Hoffman
5 – Dev Patel
tie
5 – Michael Shannon
tie
5 – Eddie Marsden

Perhaps there will be upsets from James Franco, Ralph Feinnes or Bill Irwin

Best Original Screenplay

1 – Milk
2 – Rachel Getting Married
3 – The Visitor
4 – Synecdoche, New York
5 – Gran Torino
tie
5 – In Bruges

Also in serious contention is WALL-E and Happy-Go-Lucky.

Best Adapted Screenplay

1 – Slumdog Millionaire
2 – Frost/Nixon
3 – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
4 – Doubt
5 – The Reader
tie
5 – The Dark Knight

These are really the major players in this category. Perhaps a last minute surge for Revolutionary Road can change things.