The Numbers and Final Predictions

Ok, after the BAFTA nominations everyone started to panic...myself included, about the snub of 'The Dark Knight', 'Sally Hawkins', 'Gus Van Sant' and 'Viola Davis'.
As you know I have been steadily gathering all the numbers for the top 6 awards this year. Ciritcs awards, guilds, awards bodies, top ten lists and various wins.
Let us break it down now.
For each category I am going to only give the top eight contenders in accordance to the scriptures my numbers:

Best Picture
1- Slumdog Millionaire
2-WALL-E
3-The Dark Knight
4-Milk
5-The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
6-Frost/Nixon
7-The Wrestler
8-Happy-Go-Lucky

I would say the only two locks are 'Button' and 'Slumdog', the tides could change with the rest of the other three ('Milk' is the next safest). I would say you can take out 'Happy' and 'The Wrestler' and do a pick and mix with the remaining three films and you could have a very believable Best Pic line up. I am not giving up on 'TDK' or 'WALL-E' just yet, even though everything in my brain is saying the Academy are not going to embrace two genre films in one year. However I am going with the fact the world is high on hope and the nominees will easily be 'Slumdog', 'WALL-E', 'TDK', 'Milk', 'TCCOBB', outside shot 'Frost/Nixon'

Best Director
1-Danny Boyle
2-David Fincher
3-Christopher Nolan
4-Gus Van Sant
5-Ron Howard
6-Andrew Stanton
7-Mike Leigh
8-Stephen Daldry

Easily take out Daldry.
Leave Boyle and Fincher as locks, Nolan and Van Sant as near locks and play eeany meeny miney moe with the last three. Stanton and Leigh are wild cards, but Leigh has surprised before. Since the 'Slumdog' fever I assume people want a bit of hope and joy, and that makes me think 'Happy-Go-Lucky' could be a stronger contender than people think. So being overly optimistic I say we see Boyle, Fincher, Nolan, Van Sant, Leigh. HA! outside shot Stanton.

Best Actress
1-Sally Hawkins
2-Anne Hathaway
3-Meryl Streep
4-Kate Winslet
5-Angelina Jolie
6-Melissa Leo
7-Kristen Scott Thomas
8-Michelle Williams

How funny that the person leading with precursors coming into this is the one most at risk.
Hathaway and Streep are locks. Take out Williams and you could be looking at a very interesting game for the last 3 slots.
I am not going to be surprised in Jolie is snubbed again, for what many many people think is a lesser performance. Do they really feel the need to make it up to her?
I say Hawkins, Hathaway, Streep, Winslet, Leo. Not that on a limb, but still a good(ish) set. Outside shot Jolie although can still see Williams surprising.

Best Actor
1-Sean Penn
2-Mickey Rourke
3-Frank Langella
4-Richard Jenkins
5-Brad Pitt
6-Clint Eastwood
7-Leonardo DiCaprio
8-Benicio del Torro

This is another interesting race. Penn, Rourke and Langella are locks, easily. Take out del Torro and the last two slots are looking to be filled by 4 actors. I say Eastwood will be nominated. I can just see him pulling an Ed Harris 'Pollock' last minute nom. therefore my crystal ball says Penn, Rourke, Langella, Jenkins, Eastwood outside shot DiCaprio

Best Supporting Actress
1-Penelope Cruz
2-Viola Davis
3-Marisa Tomei
4-Kate Winslet
5-Amy Adams
6-Rosemarie DeWitt
7-Taraji P. Henson
8-Alexis Zegerman

Zegerman is a pipe dream. Most likely so is DeWitt (so sad). Seven Actresses are vying for 5 slots. Will Winslet split votes or not? Who can say? It can go either way for her. She can end up with two noms, 1 nom in lead or supporting or no noms. I really believe that Cruz and Davis are the only locks, with Tomei coming up as a major possibility. I kind of closed my eyes and pointed and came up with Cruz, Davis, Tomei, Winslet, DeWitt. (I say Dewitt pulls a Marcia Gay Harden) outside shot Henson.

Best Supporting Actor
1-Heath Ledger
2-Robert Downey, Jr.
3-Philip Seymour Hoffman
4-Dev Patel
5-Josh Brolin
6-Eddie Marsan
7-Michael Shannon
8-Ralph Feinnes

For being so low on the list Brolin in a lock, as is Ledger (duh!). I am not 100% about Downey, Jr. and Hoffman, but they are very likely as well. Feinnes and Shannon are very dark horses indeed....so dark I can hardly see them. That leaves Marsan and Patel. A Marsan nom would be great (how can they watch the film and not write down his name?), but would not surprise me all that much, same with Patel. Um.....Ledger, Downey, Jr., Hoffman, Patel, Brolin outside shot Marsan.

To be honest I will be watching live, expecting to very very disappointed come nomination day. No Batman, no Sally, no Marsan, no Leo, no Stanton no film to really get behind.
So wearing my heart on my sleeve is the only way I can get through it....I mean it is a nail biter ripe with disappointments isn't it?

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Dount
Frost/Nixon
Slumdog Millionaire

alt: The Reader

Best Original Screenplay

Happy-Go-Lucky
Milk
Rachel Getting Married
Vicky Christina Barcelona
WALL-E
alt: In Bruges