What is with the Best Supporting Actress category?

Since 2001 pundits have been able to call this race nearly a year in advance 75% of the time
The only real surprise was Tilda Swinton for ‘Michael Clayton’ and Rachel Weisz for ‘The Constant Gardener’.
Seriously, I have read Oscar predictors calling all of these winners nearly a year in advance:

2001 - Jennifer Connelly for ‘A Beautiful Mind’
2002 – Catherine Zeta-Jones for ‘Chicago’
2003 – Renée Zellweger – ‘Cold Mountain’
2004 – Cate Blanchett – ‘The Aviator’
2006 – Jennifer Hudson – ‘Dreamgirls’
2008 – Penélope Cruz – ‘Vicky Christina Barcelona’

Why is this category so predictable?


Or is it?


Mo’Nique was basically called in January, and to be honest, by the sound of things it is a very deserving call.
Of course this makes me happy to think that she could win (elated is a better word), but it also shows that there is something very wrong with the fact that there are so few roles strong enough to be serious contenders, yet alone actresses to fill them.

One thing I do know, if she is the front runner, I cannot wait to see what she wears and how she handles the press. You know it will be a complete mixture of sassy and serious that will shake up the show.