Best Supporting Actress Analysis.

This is the widest open race of the night. Any one of these women could walk away with the prize.
Who will it be?

Cate Blanchett

For her:
- The performance is highly praised by some.
- She is an Academy favourite.
- The Academy loves lazy voting and portraying real life people takes the thought away from performance appreciation (in short - Bio Pics rule when it comes to awards).
- Hollywood Glamour

Against her:
- She has a recent win.
- Double female nominees have not won in either category lately. (I think Holly Hunter was the last one)
- The film is a head scratcher for A LOT of people.
- She is not American. Most of the front runners in the other 3 acting categories are non-Americans. I do not think it will be a clean sweep for foreign actors. You may not think it, but the Oscars is a very American award ceremony.

Ruby Dee

For her:
- She is an un-rewarded legend.
- The Actors guild loved her enough to give her the award, and they are the largest voting block in the Academy. Besides those who saw her up on that SAG stage may have had their heart strings tugged.
- It is easier for a lot of people to vote for someone's career than a single performance.
- She is one of the most memorable things in a well regarded film (she gives you a jolt!)
- She is the only actor of colour nominated.
- She is American.

Against her:
- Her screen time is short (too short say some.)
- Until SAG she had no real traction.
- Atonement...does the Academy like to acknowledge past mistakes?

Saiorse Ronan

For her:
- This is, historically, the kindest category for younger actors.
- She is a stand out in her film, in a very difficult role which she pulls off.
- Her film is nominated for Best Picture.
- She was cast in Peter Jackson's sure to be epic "The Lovely Bones", her buzz as an actress is huge.

Against her:
- She was cast in "The Lovely Bones". If she is as good as we suspect, she may be back in the lead category in a few years and can wait until then.
- She had no traction coming into the race, aside from the Golden Globe nomination.
- Her character is unlikable.
- She is not American.

Amy Ryan

For her:
- The critics went ga ga over her performance, and she has won just about everything in site.
- Horrible mothers are a supporting actress arch-type role.
- She is a respected Broadway Actress.
- She uglified for the role, although how much impact it will have in not clear as she is largely an unknown.
- She is American

Against her:
- She lost the SAG and Golden Globe, there does not seem to be a large amount of support in the industry.
- Her film was not nominated elsewhere.
- Some (like me) were not impressed, and second viewings may highlight some performance problems.

Tilda Swinton

For her:
- She deserves it
- She is a well respected actress
- She has across the board support and a BAFTA win.
- She is in a film nominated for Best Picture.
- Every Best Picture nominee is likely to win at least one award. Here is more likely than a win in screenplay.

Against her:
- She is not American
- Her personal life and fashion sense may not win her any fans from a largely conservative Academy membership

Final thoughts: I think it is a three way race between Blanchett, Dee and Swinton. I am seriously expecting Ruby Dee to pull a Marcia Gay Harden and win the thing, although I can see a last minute surge for Swinton if those who love the film place all their votes in this category where a win is most likely.

Final result….I expect Ruby Dee to win for a wonderful and largely ignored career.