Wednesday 4 June 2008

Best Picture Predictions

1) ”Slumdog Millionaire
With the deafening buzz and audience cheers from Toronto, this looks like a sure fire crow pleaser. Could be just the thing to shake up the best picture race this year. Danny Boyle is a director who has delivered solid films for years. This looks like it could be the one to be a front runner. The reviews are there. All we need is the box office and the Academy will follow. previous ranking: NEW)


2) "Milk"
I have little faith that a gay-themed movie can make it in. "Brokeback Mountain" was an exception.
I also have lost a little faith in Van Sant as a director, especially with something this big. However given the subject matter he may just pull out all the stops to make a stand out film. Fingers crossed. (previous ranking: 2, 4, 10)



3) "The Dark Knight"
Who would have thunk it?
Not I for a starter, but then again I didn’t expect the film to be as good as it was, or as critically praised. We are in October and it is still this and ‘Wall-E’ that are scoring a ‘universal praise’ score on Metacritic. Nothing else has.
I can see this making it through. The Academy needs a big hit to attract an audience to the show. (previous ranking: 3, 4, NEW)


4) "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
David Fincher is one of those directors that is going to be welcomed sooner or later.
If he can pull off this story that it could very well be sooner. The cast is interesting and so is the story.
Will the Academy really embrace this? More importantly will it be any good.
Those who have seen it love it, some feel a little cold, but it is about time for Fincher (previous ranking: 5, 6, 5)


5) "Wall-E"
I just think it is about time another animated film was nominated. Pixar has been turning out solid film after solid film, plus the critics awards have been very very kind.
The main con is that with the newish animated category, the Academy may not want to cross pollinate although it should. (previous ranking: 12, 4)



6) "Frost/Nixon"
Yet another loved stage play enters the mix.
This will definitely be an acting showcase, but will it be a riveting film?
On stage....yes, on film..apparently so. This could be one of those well reviewed films that just doesn't click with the Academy come year end. Then again with the political climate, it could be impossible to ignore, reviews are just fine (previous ranking: 11, 10, 8, 3)

7) "The Wrestler"
The film is supposed to be exceptional. It’s biggest hurdle will be getting people to see it since the subject matter is really not to everyone’s taste.
This could be all about Rourke’s performance, or it could be about the film entirely.
I expect it to make its mark come year end accolades though, but maybe not the big one. (previous ranking: 5, 12, NEW)


8) "Revolutionary Road"
This film looks like Oscar gold on paper.
However is previous years say anything, the early front runner always stumbles.
Sam Mendes has been turning out solid films, but has not gotten the love since his debut. This could be one of those 'acting only' films, which it could very well be.
The reviews will tell all. (previous ranking: 6, 7, 7)


9) "Doubt"
This just scream prestige, plus the fact that Meryl is looking like she is on her way to her 3rd win. This could be the big serious film of the bunch. The only iffy part is how well the stage play translates to screen. That is always a difficult task, however the actors should be able to fill any holes. Although, no matter how good, is it enough in this competitive race? (previous ranking: 7, 8, 1)


10) "Happy-Go-Lucky"
They like Mike Leigh a lot.
The film has gotten sterling reviews this side of the pond saying it is his most accessible film to date.
A nomination for his leading lady is likely, as is screenplay, but what will they make of the film.
It could stand out like a beacon a mist the very serious films in contention. (previous ranking: 9, 8, 6)

7 comments:

Anonymous said...

My perceptions:

*The Exchange: Simple, two words: CLINT EASTWOOD. After Cannes this is the first real contender of the year.
*Doubt: Beside last years, Broadway Adaptations have any luck in Oscar Consideration, maybe Doubt broke that curse...
*Milk: Maybe too artisthic or even maybe too gay, but biopics are always welcome in Oscars
*Revolutionary Road: Be careful, how happen to Memoirs of a Giesha, Alexander, Dreamgirls and even Atonement?
*The curious case of Benjamin Button: Maybe this is the real chance for Fincher has AMPAS love
*Defiance: If test screeners are we have another important contender
*The Reader: Favorite theme by AMPAS, Likely Director, Respected cast and crew and Beloved Book. Plus: In memorian for the producers: Pollack and Minghella.
*Australia: After I saw the trailer I have a feeling that this is the bomb of the year and the trailer didn't convince me. Technical aspects yes...
*Miracle at St. Anna: Beloved theme and great book only one detail: Spike Lee

Michael Parsons said...

I did have Defiance in my top ten, but Edward Zwick...he just does not scream great film making to me.
Miracle at St. Anna could be a major acting contender. Perhaps even director.

RC said...

wow mike leigh at 6...that's brave.

i was also surprised to see Wall-E make your top 5. Last year I totally wanted Ratatoille to pull into the top 5, but i think now that there's the animation catagory the chances are so slim. It's too bad, really.

Michael Parsons said...

I am being overly optimistic I know. But if 4 out of the 10 make the line up, I will be impressed with myself.

For Wall-E, I really think it could charm the pants of the Academy, enough to make the big 5. I am also thinking the same for Happy-Go-Lucky. It is a small independent comedy. That has been a bit of a Best Picture line up staple as of late.

Still it is mostly wishful thinking.

mB said...

I'm glad to see some optimistic hope for an animated film to get into the Best Pic race. If WALL-E is indeed as beautiful and amazing as it looks, it should really gain more awards traction... even if last year's Ratatouille (one of the year's best really!) was shoved aside and given the kiss on the cheek that they call the Animated Oscar Statuette.

mB said...

It's weird following up my own comment from so many months ago:

Wall-E was indeed amazing but as soon as TDK swooped in it kinda took the summer buzz with it.
Since we only have trailers to go by I agree with ranking Australia that high, though on paper and on trailer alone Doubt, Milk and Revolutionary Road have the edge for me. We'll see how F/N does when it premieres this week.
I'm still working on my predix... oh I love me some guessing games. (Also: no Gran Torino? Now that The Changeling is battling "mixed to good" reviews, that /other/ Clint Eastwood pic might just be the spoiler of the year)

Michael Parsons said...

TDK did steal that little robots thunder! But they are still the two highest scored films in wide release on meta critic.

I was going to put in Gran Torino, but everything else has a nice poster available. I need my poster to make it all look pretty.

(At this point I would put Gran Torino in the same position it is in the Director Category, just above Changeling)