Trying to get a grasp of year in advance predictions

In the top three categories that is. Best Picture, Actor and Actress.

Firstly There is Best Picture.

You usually get a comedy, a bio-pic, a critical darling, an epic sweeping film, and a socially conscious movie. This is not fool proof, but it can be applied. Sometimes they double up on one or the other, but in most cases this can be applied.

Trying to predict this early is impossible. Sure You can say “Well Clint Eastwood is releasing this year so “Changeling” is in.” You wouldn’t be wrong there.

The films that have the best shots on paper are:

“Changeling” – Not only does it have Clint Eastwood directing, it also has Clint Eastwood directing. The Academy LOVES Clint and this could easily be a nominee. Also going for it is it stars Angelina Jolie. Many feel she was wrongfully snubbed of a nomination this year so that could easily change. Clint is gold for his actors. – (critical darling)

“Doubt” – The Acclaimed stage production becomes an actors show case with P.S. Hoffman as a priest and Meryl Streep as a nun!! If the source material survives translation to the screen this could be a HUGE awards magnet. It is also the type of film that could cause a little controversy which never hurts as long as helps – (socially conscious)

“Frost/Nixon” – The Academy also love Ron Howard. This is adapted by Peter Morgan from his own play and stars Frank Langella and Michael Sheen reprising their stage roles. If Howard can put aside his trade mark slush and deliver something scathing and current then the film should not fail. – (bio-pic)

“Milk” – Ooh the Academy were a little embarrassed after the “Brokeback Mountain” loss….so much so they went and hired a big ole out and proud dyke to host the show the following year. Perhaps this will get a nomination just to prove the haters wrong. – (bio pic)

“Australia” – They Academy loved “Moulin Rouge”, but not enough to give it a Best Director slot. This could change this year for Baz Lurhman. This film looks to be epic and could even bring the lovely Nicole back to the show as a nominee. – (epic sweeping film)

“Revolutionary Road” – Sam Mendes, Kate Winslet and Leo DiCaprio equals HUGE BUZZ, and this has been around since early last year. It could sink under the pressure though. – (epic sweeping film)

“The Reader” – Winslet again, this time with Ralph Fiennes speaking the words written by David Hare and being directed by Stephen Daldry. This looks like it could be huge. Love + War + Nazi’s = big attention. This could also go to 2009. – (socially conscious)

“The Soloist” – Jamie Foxx hamming in another bio-pic. However this time it is directed by Joe Wright and co-starring character actress extraordinaire Catherine Keener. This could go either way…bio pics have a way of being a let down even when they show moments of brilliance. - (bio-pic)

“Frozen River” – The Sundance winner about illegal immigrants could be another critical darling. The embrace of the idependant could also mean this could do well but it needs the praise and the buzz which all may be layed upon the lead actress Melissa Leo and reserved only for the Independent Spirits. – (critical darling)

“Ballast” – If one film emerged from Sundance with heavy buzz and praise it was this film about an emotionally frayed family whose lives are torn asunder by a tragic act in a small Mississippi Delta town. The performances by non actors are supposed to be fantastic, and the film is more lyrical thanks to director Lance Hammer. – (critical darling)

“Happy-Go-Lucky” – Lead Sally Hawkins came away from Berlin with a best actress prize for what has been called Mike Leigh’s most accessible film to date. He is well respected by the Academy and will this get him another nomination? - (critical darling/comedy)

“Blindness” - An unknown epidemic causes sudden blindness in a town and only a woman remains unaffected by the disease. Fernando Meirelles (a daring film maker) directs Mark Ruffalo, Gael Garcia Bernal, Sandra Oh and Julianne Moore in the lead role. – (critical darling) Be

That leaves the comedies. And that is a tough one. No one ever predicts the “Juno’s” or “Little Miss Sunshines” or even films like “Sideways” and “Chocolate”. With so many brilliant serious on paper films coming out, perhaps this will be one of those years where there is not comedy nominee. Even if there is we will probably not know of it until the last minute.

I would love something like “Wall-E” to be nominated, but they have the Animated Film category for that, so as to keep it out of the Best Picture line up……perhaps this year will be different. There was no real buzz for a comedy coming out of Sundance this year.

The only advance buzz is for Mike Leigh’s “Happy-Go-Lucky” but how funny are his comedies really? They always seem to go more towards the tragedy side of life.

I guess we will have to wait and see what tickles our funny bones, and is moving enough to garner the buzz. I am doubting that “Mama Mia” is going to go all the way and that “The Women” will get the critical praise needed.

If I had to pick from the above list I would have to say these would be the following nominees:

“Changeling”
“Doubt”
“Milk”
“Revolutionary Road”
“Australia”

Many people are expecting Brad Pitt and David Finchers "The Curious Case of Benjamine Button" to score well. I am just not feeling it really. I just have a feeling in my bones about this one.

Then again this is what is so exciting about the Oscars. No one can no for sure. There could be a wonderful foreign film nominated, or an animated film. Perhaps 2008 will see the first documentary up for Best Picture!

Whatever happens, I an excited, if only for the prospect that Kate Winslet will finally win an award this year!