1) Heath Ledger - The Dark KnightHe deserves a nomination. But can the performance over come it's comic book origins? This one will. Added to that the sympathy for an Actor who is gone too soon, and should already have an Oscar. Now there is talk of a lead campaign..oh dear. (previous rank 5)
2) Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic ThunderHe not only steals the pic from the other stars, but adds layers of nuance while being hysterical. Are comedies like this rewarded? With 'The Soloist' being '09 they may want to reward him anyway (previous rank 6, 5, 8, NEW)
3) Josh Brolin - MilkTime to prove that last years was not a fluke. As the villain of the movie he will have a juicy role, but there are other villains afoot He is going to have to stand out, and the film is going to have to overcome the gay stigma to make it in the big categories . (previous rank 2, 8)
4) Philip Seymour Hoffman - DoubtIt is a juicy role, although advance word is that the film belongs to the actresses. However the man is very well liked. If he can get nominated for ‘Charlie Wilson’s War’ then…... Playing a priest accused of molestation will grab attention. (previous rank 6, NEW)
5) Dev Patel - 'Slumdog MillionaireSAG nominated him, and gave the film an undeserved Ensemble nomination, which means the actors and the critics are behind this film. He is most likely in, even if he was not brilliant in the film. (previous rank 9, 10, 9)
6) Michael Shannon - Revolutionary RoadHe is a hard working actor who is always good. He is in an Oscar bait film as well, and the role is supposedly juicy. This will either be a breakout for him, or he will get lost. He really needs the film to do well. (previous rank 2, 7, 12, 10)
7) Eddie Marsan – Happy-Go-LuckyIt is not only Sally Hawkins and Mike Leigh who are getting praised. Marsan who plays the mad driving instructor has received unanimous praise. He managed to get a few end of year notices as well. (previous rank 3, 4, NEW)
8) James Franco - Milk‘Pineapple Express’ got his great notices this year. There is strong advance buzz for him right now, and he has been around for a while, but mainly in bad films. However there is a lot of internal competition in this film. (previous rank 5, 6, 11, NEW)
3 comments:
My predictions:
1. Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight: Without my wishful thinking, I think he has strong posibilities (He has the real spirirt of the Joker and looks outstading) and now, after Indiana Jones relative flop (In critical aspects), The Dark Knight has the free way to became this year's Bourne (Maybe the only competition is Iron Man)
2. Liev Schreiber, Defiance: Denzel, Djimon, Ken... zwick has good luck with supporting players. Rumor has it at the screeners tests he steals the show even with Craig and if those rumors are true, this is the perfect Best picture of the Year and finnally Zwick would have a Best Director Oscar Nomination...
3. Koby Smit-McPhee, The Road: Young players are likely in this category and with the coverage and Viggo with him...
4. Jason Butler Henry, Changeling: Three facts:
-He's in a Clint Eastwood film with Angelina Jolie
-It's always a place to exclusive Broadway actors (Last year's Amy Ryan)
-A villain is likely in this time
5. Robert Downey Jr., The Soloist: I don't like the proyect but Robert IS the man right now... Comeback is calling
Alt:
6. Milk's boys: We have three diferents boys in the same film (Like Synecdoche, NY's girls) My pereptions:
-Villain character: Josh Brolin- He's a great last year with NCFOM, AG and PT. Playing a real character and a villain is maybe a golden role
-A la Gyllenhaal: James Franco- He's a talented young actor who needs a real push. If we have a post Brokeback effect, Franco and Penn could get an Oscar nominations like heath Ledger and Jake Gyllenhaal
-A la Wahlberg: Emile Hirsch- He's awfully snubbed last year (Why George Clooney and not him?). If he's amazing, he could get Mark Wahlberg effect for "The Departed" two years ago instead strongers contenders in his film like Jack nicholson and Matt Damon
7. Michael Sheen, Frost/Nixon: He's a good actor and he was snubbed for "The Queen" two years ago but four words: I HATE RON HOWARD... Instead, last Broadways adaptation are suffering in diferents ways and maybe will be overshadow by "Doubt"
8. Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road: He's constantly good but maybe he's the weakest contender for the film even if his film is favorite
9. David Wenham, Australia: I don't think he has real shot, but many blogs and pages are considerate him like a contender and he's a hot talented aussie actor...
10. Jake Gyllenhaal, Brothers: I love the danish film and it's a nice idea the Brokeback reunion, but the film needs fantastic and Gyllenhaal and Portman outstading...
-Mexican Actors: I'm mexican and I considerate them. Demian Bichir for "Che" and gael Garcia Bernal for "Blindness". But maybe it's more a national poud instead real shots...
Do you have a blog?? you so should have one.
Heath is a guaranteed lock for a nomination. Many felt he was robbed in 2005. Funny he's going up against Hoffman again.
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