The top four are very likely. Ellen Paige, Marion Cotillard and Julie Christie are locks. Angelina Jolie is very very likely. Now for that damn fifth slot. The most likely duke out will be between Amy Adams, Laura Linney, Cate Blanchett, and Keira Knightly. Out of them all Adams is most likely to be the new sweetheart of America so she is in (for now).
The Top Five!
1 - Ellen Page is going to be nominated and as a young pretty thing, she could win the damn thing. She lost alot of precursors to Christie early on, but since has gained momentum. If the film is nominated, she will win the thing since she carries it.
2 -Julie Christie has made a big mark on the awards radar for her touching and universally praised performance as an Alzheimer’s victim in “Away From Her”.
At this point she has won everything, she could win the Oscar easily.
3 -Marion Cotillard had a difficult fight ahead of her, but now she looks like a front runner. Her performance of Edith Piaf in “La Vie En Rose” is sensational, garnering RAVES from audiences and critics. However is that the film was not nearly as well received as she was.
4 - Angelina Jolie is still gaining buzz for the early reviewed "A Mighty Heart". Some feel she is saturated enough though, what will her and Brad's daily tabloid goings ons. She is wonderful in the role, as GG, SAG and BFCA have agreed, so this could see her in.
5 - “Atonement” has been garnering raves all around. Especially for the actors. Keira Knightly is a star, and now it emerges that she is a very good actress. Now she has another critically successful film where she is singled out. Will the Academy LOVE the film?
The Next Five
6 - Amy Adams in Disney's Enchanted. Seems unlikely on paper, but remember that Johnny Depp got a nomination for playing lead in a film based on a Disney ride. The reviews are unanimous about her performance...she is brilliant, she has the GG and BFCA
7 -Cate Blanchett is becoming the new Meryl Streep She could see herself nominated for her performance in “The Golden age”, but the critics are not happy with the movie at all, and she may be wearing her welcome a bit with the Academy.
8 -”The Savages” will give Laura Linney another shot. She is very deserving, and the critics are behind her but no love from the precursors. Her problem is if not many people see the film, if they do, she is in. If she is nominated, there is a good chance she will win the thing.
9 - Jodie Foster is an icon. In “The Brave One” she is has been getting flat out raves from all the critics, although the films reviews less kind. She got the GG nom, she just needs a big ole push from the studio and an amazing campaign highlighting those great reviews.
10 - Nicole Kidman is getting great notices from a few critics for her performance in "Margot at the Wedding". She is also getting not so good ones. It doesn't help that her character is considered horrible and mean. She needed a Globe nod and a smart campaign and got neither.