Swinton, Ryan, and Blanchett are in. AS with Ronan, MacDonald, Dee, Keener and Redgrave, well simply I played eeny meeny miney mo and this was the outcome.
The Top Five
1 - Amy Ryan is getting best in show notices for the Ben Affleck directed "Gone Baby Gone". A fresh face is always welcome, and added to this she has just about won EVERYTHING. Apparently it is not an amazing performance, but she will be nominated, and could even win.
2 - Cate Blanchett plays Bob Dylan in “I’m Not There” and the gimmick may pay off. She is the main female in a film that will surely have alot of love, but strangely she has lost out on ALOT of precursors to Ryan. Could the ole Blanchett magic be wearing off?
3 - ”Michael Clayton” is very male centric. But Tilda Swinton walks away with one of the best performances. This and the precuror attention she has gotten should be enough to get her a nomination. She is respected and considered due for at least a nomination.
4 - Ruby Dee has a small role in "American Gangster" but she is said to be the voice of reason and has a big ole scene that may get the Academy's attention. She has been around for ages and is thought of highly within Hollywood circles, enough that they could nominate.
5 - Saoirse Ronan has just been cast in “The Lovely Bones” which means the girl has the goods to pull off a complex character. Without her performance the entire film would fail. Strangely she is not getting the precursors she needs. I think the Academy will rectify that.
The Next Five
6 - Catherine Keener seems to always be popping up at the Oscars. She has been singled out by both the BFCA and SAG for her performance in "Into The Wild" and this could easily see her slip in. She is obviously well respected, but this category is ripe for upsets.
7 - Only some one as brilliant as Vanessa Redgrave could have pulled off the ending to "Atonement". She gets the biggest emotional payoff and this could very well see her make it into the top 5. She is not as much as a lock as Saoirse is, but she would not be considered a long shot either.
8 - ”No Country for Old Men” may be all about the men, but early reviews suggest that Kelly MacDonald is just as good. Judging by the films RAVES, she could get swept up if the film takes off with the Academy. Plus Scottish girl doing a Texan accent - worth an award in itself!
9 - Jennifer Jason Leigh has been ignored by the Academy for a very long time now. It looks as though she will finally be on the short list with “Margot at the Wedding”. People think she is well over due but she has nothing to show in way of precursors.
10 - Marisa Tomei has been a Oscar joke for years!!! "Before the Devil Knows You're Dead" has been getting great reviews all around for the cast, and she is no exception. In such a weak year for actresses, this could be the type of role needed to send her into the top five. No precursors though