Ok, So I really needed to update my Oscar Predictions already. Should have really waited till after Toronto to post them, but what the hey.
They are looking dated already, especially Best Actress.
I was thinking about this category today at work and how it is always filled with four types of women. So I want to look at who, out of the contenders, fall into these categories, and then who will most likely succeed.
1) First Time Nominees
Ellen Page – She was not on my radar, but has been getting fantastic notices for “Juno”. She already made a splash with “Hard Candy” and she also has “An American Crime” heading this way, but she is only 20, and the film does not necessarily look like some thing Academy could embrace….who knows though.
Marion Cotillard – She could be one of the few foreign actresses awarded the spot. The reviews are so there, and she does look like a very likely contender. Will she have the precursors though?
Keri Russell got good notices for “Waitress” but only enough to get her the Globe nom. I fear she will sit this year out.
The “Life in the Time of Cholera” Women. Well there is only Giovanna Mezzogiornia really for this category. The film has had no real noise as of yet. Could this mean the studio is holding onto this as a pinch hitter? This seems likely, and the cast look very promising.
What of Summer Bishil in "Nothing is Private". The film has rapid love/hate response. No one has said anything really negative for the actress though, and those who love the movie, love her. Hmmmmm
2) The Supporting Actress Graduates (those who have been nominated or one in this categry, but never graduated to leading lady in the Academy’s eyes)
The most likely candidate would be “A Mighty Heart” star Angelina Jolie. Good notices and star wattage may be enough to see her shortlisted.
Uma Thurman – In Bloom has had no buzz, and Variety did not like it in the review, and other critics do not single her out. Will be a battle.
Marcia Gay Harden - Rails & ties has gotten fine reviews, and the trailer looks nice and slushy, but I do not think even the daughter of Clint Eastwood can direct Marcia to a nomination. Stranger things have happened.
3) The “Never Won’s/Overdue’s
We all want to see Laura Linney win an Oscar and by the sounds of it “The Savages” is that pic. But how often does a comedy win, plus she has A LOT of external competition.
“Atonement” has it’s rabid fans, as does ,Keira Knightly. I personally think she is a deserved winner, but there are a few who feel that she does not have that big emotional scene that will take her all the way.
Sigourney Weaver needs to win. She is an icon and feminist hero. I had high hopes for “A Girl in the Park” but as many great things that I have heard about her performance have been dampered by some horrific.
Julianne Moore is rumored to be great in “Savage Grace”, but that is just a rumor. I will find out come the end of October when I get a chance to see it. The woman however is very overdue.
“An American Crime” has been around for a while, but where is the distribution? That may pose a hurdle for Catherine Keener in getting a nom.
Cate Blanchette wants that Best Actress trophy really badly. “The Golden Age” is meant to be a disappointment, but her performance is not. Expect her to ride the wave all the way to the end.
“Eastern Promises” got RAVES,, but more for the movie than the performances. This could mean bad things for Naomi Watts and her chance of nomination number two.
4) The Previous Winners/Oscar Royalty
“The Brave One” is a divisive film, but all hail Jodie Foster. I can see her making it all the way to the end, and I hope she does. The press she is doing reminds everyone what an intelligent and gracious woman she is.
Julie Christie’s film has faded, but not forgotten. She needs some precursors for “Away From Her” to ride the year out.
I fear the Nicole Kidman will sit this year out. She plays a very unlikable character, although she is great. Perhaps she will hit it big in Supporting.
We have also heard nothing from Halle Berry’s performance in “Things We Lost in the Fire”. Could be great, could not. This is a very iffy scenario and I am expecting her co star to take the glory.