Best Picture - So Not Clear!

This year the Best Picture race is cloudy to say the least. It is like a game of musical chairs. There are 5 chairs in a room and over 20 contenders, all showing signs of being able to make it.
Lets have a look at the films that have the best shot in each different Oscar friendly genre. (some of these cross over)

Drama (Modern Day)

We have “Michael Clayton”, “Into the Wild”, “Charlie Wilson’s War” , “Eastern Promises”, “In the Valley of Elah”, “No Country for Old Men”, “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”, “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly”, “Gone Baby Gone” and “The Kite Runner”.

A lot I know. The films with the best chances are “Michael Clayton”, “Into the Wild”, “The Kite Runner”, “Charlie Wilson’s War”, and “No Country for Old Men”.

Eastern Promises did not get the RAVES needed to overcome the dark story. Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead” could still surprise, but most probably in the Director category. “In the Valley of Elah” just seems likeit has no traction right now, perhaps and Academy are a little embarrassed by that horrific “Crash” a few years ago and will stay away for Haggis this year. “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” is foreign so will most likely be rewarded in Foreign Film, but it is sentimental so a few other nominations could crop up.
“Gone Baby Gone” will not be rewarded for the big one. It is just too crowded for Ben Afflecks directorial debut.



Drama (Period)

Here we have “Atonement”, “There Will Be Blood”, “American Gangster”, “The Assassination of Jessie James” and “Lust, Caution”

The best chances go to “Atonement” and “There Will be Blood”. I do not see “American Gangster” being nominated. It may have great box office, but it needed great reviews to go along with it. I just see this as a movie people wanted to be brilliant so there is this sense that they will not let go of hope. LET GO!
“The Assassination of Jessie James” is getting LOVE/HATE reviews which, unfortunately means it will miss out on a big nom, and may be stuck with loads of technical noms. “Lust, Caution” is really out of the picture, it was met with a big ole “meh”.



Comedy

Here we have “Juno”, “The Savages” and “Knocked Up”

“Knocked Up” is looking only at a screenplay nom. “Juno” and “The Savages” could make it in, depending on the critical love (which is already there for both) and box office results. Either of these have a strong chance at the lone Comedy slot.



Bio Pic

Well there is “American Gangster”, “Into the Wild”, “Charlie Wilson’s War”, and “I’m Not There”

Again, only “Into the Wild” and “Charlie Wilson’s War” are the only real contenders. “American Gangster” I have already spoken about, and “I’m Not There” will just been too quirky and too little seem to get Best Pic.




Musical

Well here we have “Sweeney Todd”, “Once”, and “Hairspray”

“Sweeney Todd” and “Once” have the best bets with the latter having big support from the likes of Spielberg! “Hairspray” was a light fun and box office hit, but will most likely only see a Golden Globe nom.



Fantasy/Horror

“Sweeney Todd” and “The Golden Compass” are the only threats, and depending on the reviews both could score. I give the edge to “Sweeney Todd” as the Academy may feel they have rewarded fantasy enough this decade.



So the main contenders are (not accounting for any surprises along the way like "The Great Debators":

“Sweeney Todd”
“Once”
“Michael Clayton”
“Into the Wild”
“Charlie Wilson’s War”
“No Country for Old Men
“The Kite Runner”.
“Juno”
“The Savages”
“Atonement”
“There Will Be Blood”

Still not clear at all….and that is so welcome!