Where’s the support???

Best Supporting Actress is usually where the women get to shine. Lets face it, there are not that many really juicy lead parts out there for women, so it is the supporting category where we get some of the most interesting female acting work.

Apparently not this year. When doing my predictions for this category, I was stumped. There is only one lock, but I can still see that getting a slight backlash. They love Cate Blanchett, but this year seems a little gimmicky for her what with playing both a pantomime version of Queen Elizabeth the First as well as Bob Dylan. If I were an Academy voter I would be saying “Enough all ready…so you are versatile, who cares anymore.” But that is just me. (?)

In all likely hood she will be nominated, but who else. Who else has the buzz?
Firstly lets start with “Atonement” only because I have seen it. There are three possibilities for a nomination here. Soairse Ronan as the young Briony, Romola Garai as the middle one and Vanessa Redgrave (pictured) as the adult Briony. Any of us who have three siblings know that it is always the middle one who is forgotten, and the bookends who get the most attention.
Ronan seems the most likely, but far from a lock. Redgrave could easily slip in, and just as easily not. Hers is the smallest role, yet has the most emotional impact.

Then we have the Jennifers. Forget Connelly for “Reservation Road” that ain’t gonna happen. We are left with the over looked Jason Leigh for the critically mixed “Margot at the Wedding”. There are some great reviews behind her, but does the Academy really think she is overdue? Then there is Garner for “Juno”. Could this really happen? She apparently has a wonderful and heart breaking end scene, and never underestimate the power of a great Oscar clip, but the praise seems to be lavished entirely upon the films star.

Amy Ryan has gotten great notices for playing a white trash mother of a missing child in “Gone Baby Gone”, but white trash only impresses the Academy when the performer is well know for being glamorous to begin with. This could also be the same fate for Kelly MacDonald in “No Country for Old Men”. A male-centric movie where she is the only female of note, she could get noticed, or completely swallowed by the more ‘attention grabbing’ male performances. She is said to bring great warmth to the movie and nails her last crucial scene, but is it enough?

Perhaps there is room for another (besides Blanchett) huge movie star.
Nicole Kidman looks to play a cold calculating villain in “The Golden Compass” and she could be in if the performance is menacing enough, but she needs to over come the stigma of being in a genre film. I am not convinced of Julia’s hair, accent, or acting in the trailer for “Charlie Wilson’s War” (looking oddly like Lady Penelope, Joan Rivers and Amanda LePore combined) but she is a beloved star and her return could be welcomed.
The most likely would be Meryl Streep for “Lions for Lambs”. She is said to have the most interesting character and is very convincing with the ping pong reporters banter. The only question is how good is the film? Early reviews are mixed, but she is Meryl.

Then we have Marisa Tomei’s nakedness in “Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead”. She is meant to be intense and have loads of screen time, but the film is mainly focused on the men. Another film focused on men in “Michael Clayton” but it’s lone (large) female role is a corker and one that stays with you when you walk away. This could very likely see Tilda Swinton gain her first nomination and that is deserved.

And finally what of Leslie Mann (pictured) and her much heralded performance in “Knocked Up”? She has a very strong fan base that could see her pushed more and more into the lime light as the year goes on. This has happened on one or two occasions and there is nothing to say it cannot happen again. She just needs some critics support and she could be safely in.

But there are very few locks. Instead of having to make tough decisions on who not to nominate , I think the Academy members will be struggling to find performances they like enough. And this is what one needs to think about. Which five performances will Academy members like enough to nominate. This is the year of the dark serious film for the Best Picture race…perhaps a lighter Best Supporting Actress category?
If so we could see a combination of:

Cate Blanchett – “I’m Not There”
Saoirse Ronan – “Atonement”
Jennifer Garner – “Juno”
Kelly Macdonald – “No Country for Old Men”
Leslie Mann – “Knocked Up”

Then again is this category should reflect Best Picture in any way we could see an outcome like this:

Cate Blanchett – “I’m Not There”
Saoirse Ronan – “Atonement”
Kelly Macdonald – “No Country for Old Men”
Vanessa Redgrave – “Atonement”
Tilda Swinton – “Michael Clayton”

Either way only Blanchett is a sure thing(ish). Redgrave, Ronan, and Swinton are all deserving but long shots from being locks. My honest opinion would have to be that there are at least fifteen women vying for four spots, but I think the final five could look a little like this:

Cate Blanchett – “I’m Not There”
Saoirse Ronan – “Atonement”
Kelly Macdonald – “No Country for Old Men”
Jennifer Jason Leigh – “Margot at the Wedding”
Tilda Swinton – “Michael Clayton”

It would be a wonderful year to be able to debate which of the strong and wonderful performances should make it in and which should be left out. Unfortunately this year is not that year. We have to make do with what we are handed.