Best Picture Predictions

With the new rule of ten nominees in the category, things will surely get interesting this year. Will it be as diverse as people hope, or will it be more of the same ole same ole?

1
‘Up in the Air’

Another pedigree film, and it has major buzz.
The word from the festival circuit is that this film is wonderful and brilliant. Could win it.







2
‘The Hurt Locker’

With reviews like it has been getting it seems unlikely that this will miss out.

The new top ten nominees in this category will allow a more diverse list.






3
‘Invictus’

Unless it tank, which is unlikely, this should see its way into the top ten.

It is Clint after all and the subject matter was enough to have everyone place it in the top five a year ago.





4
‘Precious’

This seemed very likely after the Sundance and Toronto showing.
The only hurdle is if the Academy refuse to see it.

With the buzz for the film, Mo’Nique and Sibide as big as it is, it could end up winning.





5
‘Avatar’

This could be possibly too big to ignore.
The technical branch will surely booster it’s votes, but how does it play?









6
‘Nine’

They love musicals.
This talent (actors, directors, producers ect) has a combination of 34 previous nominations and 14 wins.
This should ride the wave.






7
‘Up’

Due to the new rules this could very easily be the second animated film nominated for Oscar.
I would be surprised if it was not included.







8
‘An Education’

In, not for the win, but this should easily slip comfortably into the top ten spots.

With potentially 4 acting noms, it will be hard to dismiss.







9
‘A Serious Man’

The Coen Brothers are getting some of their best reviews for their new comedy. This should do well in the Screenplay category, and perhaps make a showing here.






10
‘The Lovely Bones’

The pedigree is there.
Jackson seems to only helm films lately that are a labour of love which this is, and I am sure it will show.

How good it is shouldn’t stop a top ten placement.




11
'Where the Wild Things Are’

Something tells me the childhood wonder will capture the hearts and memories of the Academy.

If the film is met with mixed reaction it will not happen.
The reviews need to be stellar.




12
‘Inglourious Basterds’

The love for this is rising, and the reviews are there.
Can it make it all the way.
Basically anything can make it in, it is untested waters.






13
‘District 9’

Now the reviews are wonderful.
It is between this and ‘Star Trek’ for the summer sci-fi spot.
This seems a little more serious and important than the other.






14
‘Bright Star’

The reviews are there, but it all depends on how well it is received.

If the festival circuit is anything to go by, it looks like another contender in the big 10.






15
‘The White Ribbon’

Never count out a Cannes winner, especially when you have 10 films to nominate. We shall see how this plays with audiences.







16
‘A Single Man’

Some people love love love this film. As we all know if the love from a few is strong enough the film can make it is. Is it time for another gay movie? Hell yes.







17
‘Julie & Julia’

Love for the Julia half could go a long way in getting this comedy remembered at year end. The populist vote can go far.

MAFFE 2009

Just realised I forgot to do my nominees for the MAFFE (Michael's Academy of Feature Film Excellence) Awards.

They will be coming soon! Mark my word!

‘Up in the Air’ trailer

Forgive the early hype from myself, but this trailer really does make me believe that we could be looking at a serious contender for the Best Picture Oscar. I know it has already been praised up and down the place due to festival screenings, but there is something about this trailer that gave me goosebumps.
Will this resonate enough with the Academy to over look some of the HUGE contenders like ‘Invictus’, ‘The Lovely Bones’, or ‘Nine’?
A top ten placement is fairly certain now, but can it win?

Watch for yourself.

‘Princess and the Frog’ trailer

Well much has been said about Disney’s first African American Princess, and while it should be applauded, what is even more applauding is that the ‘Prince’ is a white boy.
To quote Tracey Turnblad, “I’m all for integration!’
Actually that is not what is the most applaudable thing about this new film. What is, and only judging by this trailer, is the return to the 2D animation.
While watching this I had a feeling of nostalgia I haven’t in a long time. The swirling colours and character animation feels old and classic, as though it belongs in the era of ‘Sleeping Beauty’ and ‘Cinderella’. Time will tell if the film will be a success. In the era of 3D, will kids want to see something old school? Also the critics have not been too kind with the last few Disney 2D animation outings, with the return to roots change that?

Whatever happens, I will be seeing this, even if I have never really loved the songs by Randy Newman and have my doubts that they will particularly fit a toe tapping musical number – although also realised I could easily be proved wrong. Musical numbers with a Creole blues flavour can easily win me over.

Meow

Why are there no movies about cats?
Sure I love a dog – from a slight distance…..but cats, well the Egyptians were an advanced people and they saw fit to worship them, and so do I.
Yes I am a cat lover.
I have had cats all my life and I can name all of them: Fred, Scoody-Doo, Snowy, Anna, Smokey, Fruitcake, Frisky, Sebastian, Tristan, Buffy, Nevin, Murphy, Merlot, Baxter and Sophie.
I loved them all.
Right now I am left with Murphy who is getting up there in age, which is something that constantly puts the fear of God in me.

Most of my friends are either dog people or say they are “allergic”.
I am allergic but you just get over it! Just tell me the truth, you do not want to come over because you don’t like getting cat hair on your new Prada jumper.
Reminds me of Carrie Bradshaw freaking out about her allergy to parsley.

Anywho, I was trying to think about cats in film, where the feline is central to the story and a hero of sorts. Sure there are films featuring the big cats of the world, but I am talking domestic cats. All I can come up with are these:

‘The Aristocats’
‘The Cat From Outerspace’
‘That Darn Cat!’
‘Cats Eye’

We could argue the fierce Michelle Pfeiffer gave us all a cat hero in ‘Batman Begins’, but I am speaking of furry little things that fit snugly on your lap.
Usually when the lovely little precious things are in movies they fall into 4 categories:

Evil foil to the hero: ‘Babe’, ‘Cats & Dogs’, ‘Lady and the Tramp’, ‘Stuart Little’
Pet to the Evil: Blofelds cat, Dr Evils cat, ‘The Godfather’
Side kick to a dog: ‘Homeward Bound’, ‘Milo and Otis’, ‘Oliver and Co.’
Punch line to joke (usually resulting in said cats torturous screaming for laughs): ‘Meet the Parents’.

Why are they always the evil or the punch line in movies? Why are dogs so great and always the hero? When did needy and demanding become such wonderful traits?

Won’t someone out there make a film about cats that depict them as they are: Curious, independent, affectionate and extremely intelligent creatures that not only self cleaning and odour free, but when they go potty, they dig a little hole and cover it back up – such manners!
I love the independence of my cat, they are like adults. Sure, Muphy turns into a meow machine when she is hungry, but most of the time she does her own thing on her terms. I love that independence, but it seems Hollywood doesn’t. They seem to like the ease at which love is depicted by this bounding, furry, slobbery mass of need. I personally feel more special when my little kitty decides it is time to show affection – it means more.

Anyone who is a cat owner will get a kick out of the series of cartoons called Simons Cat by Simon Tofield. I just tried to watch them at work, but my insane cackle distracted people.

I have previously posted this video from ‘Garfields Nine Lives” and I dare you not to watch this without shedding a tear. Go on! Watch Diana’s Piano and see how you are able to resist.

Best Director Predictions

Katheryn Bigelow – ‘The Hurt Locker’

The reviews all praise her work on this.
She looks to be the one director who is a serious lock for a nomination. Girl power indeed.


Peter Jackson – ‘The Lovley Bones’

He is not a man to be dismissed.
The film is bound to have its rabid fans, and that and the scope of the project should see him easily make it in.


Clint Eastwood – ‘Invictus’

As anyone who has ever tried to make a prediction for the Oscars, one thing you should never do, and that is never bet against Clint.


Lee Daniels – ‘Precious’

Some reviewers have criticized some of his directorial choices, some other praise him for them and his bravery. He is looking like he could make it in.


Lone Scherfig – ‘An Education’

All of the nominations for this film, aside from Lead Actress, are dependant on how much it is loved.
If it is loved, it is because of her.


Jason Reitman – ‘Up in the Air’

He got a good cast, and a great screenplay. He is proving to be a major and well liked talent. Being liked can go further than having talent. He has both.


Spike Jonze – ‘Where the Wild Things Are’

Sometimes a labour of love can make it in the cut, even if the final result is uneven. If this is loved, he is in. If it is not, he could still make it.


Jane Campion – ‘Bright Star’

Another woman vying for a place. She has been nominated once before and this is said to be a return to form. I am still iffy on the chances for this film though.


Michael Haneke – ‘The White Ribbon’

Respected director makes a relatively ‘main stream; film. This could see him finally being embraced by the Academy. Cannes does not hurt either.


James Cameron – ‘Avatar’

Another labour of love. After being away so long, we are all waiting to see if he still has it. Will his dedication and hard work see him rewarded?


Rob Marshall – ‘Nine’

Not so sure about his chances. If the film is a hit with audiences and he gets decent reviews then he could slip in. There seem to be ‘better’ directors to choose from here.


Mira Nair – ‘Amelia’

Well respected director who has a major film coming out this year. The film needs to be loved and she needs to really stand out as director to make it in. Great to see so many women here though!

Single Madge,

I have a confession. I have not been listening to a lot of new music lately. Instead of transferring all my Madonna CD’s to my iTunes, I just downloaded her entire collection.
And listened to it.
Say what you will about the woman, but she has a bloody strong catalogue, something I do not think anyone could ever argue.

It actually got me thinking about the songs that ended up being released as singles, and the songs that weren’t. There are seriously so many bloody strong album tracks, that I am sure they would have out performed some of the weaker choices for singles, even the ones released overseas and not in the US.

Let’s take it album by album shall we?

Madonna – Madonna

A tough choice as all the singles (‘Lucky Star’, ‘Borderline’, ‘Burning Up’, ‘Holiday’, and ‘Everybody’) are all classics. However, I have always preferred the smouldering ‘Physical Attraction’ over the bubblegum ‘Lucky Star’, and think it is a song that has aged much better.


Madonna – Like a Virgin

‘Material Girl’, ‘Angel’, ‘Like a Virgin’, ‘Over and Over’, ‘Love Don’t Live Here Anymore’ and ‘Dress You Up’ were all singles (Over and Love were released in Italy and Japan respectively) but one of my personal favourites was always the last track ‘Stay’. Sure it sounds dated, but it always makes me do the two things Madonna has always demanded, dance and sing.


Madonna – True Blue

While I can never argue with the choice to release ‘Papa Don’t Preach’, ‘Live to Tell’, ‘Open Your Heart’ and ‘La Isla Bonita’ as singles, I will always pick ‘White Heat’ over ‘True Blue’ any time, any day (I have to apologise to my boy friend as 'True Blue' is his favourite – Sorry Guapo!).


Madonna – Like a Prayer

Here is where things get so fricking difficult as I LOVE every single song on this album, but if I were held at gun point to make a decision on which of the singles to scrap and which album track to replace it with it would have to be the UK single release ‘Dear Jessie’ (which made number 4!) and add her confessional and stunning ‘Till Death do us Part’. Sure it may be tacky to release something so personal like that as a single, but my God is the song outstanding.


Madonna – Erotica

Not so much a work of singles as it is an album you should listen to from beginning to end. However, out of the six singles released I would have to scrap ‘Fever’ (never really loved it, but did like the video) and release the pulsating, grinding ‘Waiting’ if only to hear what the remixes would have been like and the video.


Madonna – Bedtime Stories

After revisiting the album I was so impressed with what I heard. However I am still of the impression that ‘Secret’ was not a strong single. It preformed well, but there were other songs on the album that really spoke to me personally. I would swap ‘Secret’ for ‘Inside of Me’ which sees Madonna almost as baby doll voiced sex kitten. Is the song about her mother or an old lover though?


Madonna – Ray of Light

As much as I love mostly all of the track son this album, I still think she was a little mad not to release ‘Candy Perfume Girl’ which is one of her most lyrically interesting tracks, and a kick ass song to boot. I would probably swap ‘The Power of Goodbye’ for this gem.


Madonna – Music

Easy peasy for what she should have released, but since all three singles were extremely strong I can’t shut one out. Although Warner pushed for her to release ‘Amazing’ she wanted to release ‘Impressive Instant’ which would have been a wise move, especially for club land. One of her most effective dance songs.


Madonna – American Life

This album would have been a much bigger success has she released ‘Hollywood’ or ‘Nothing Fails’ as the first single to take away the sting of ‘American Life’. ‘Love Profusion’ is a great song, but I would have released the song that whenever I play it, people always ask “Who is this?”. ‘X-Static Process’ would have been a smart release as a way of reminding listeners that Madonna can still make an impact with a ballad


Madonna – Confessions on a Dancefloor

I am not a fan of ‘Jump’. After ‘Hung Up’ and ‘Sorry’ it sounded far too pop. I would have gone instead with the superb stormer ‘Let it Will Be’. Not only is it one of the best from the album, the remixes would have kept the dance floors pounding til the wee hours.


Madonna – Hard Candy

‘Incredible’ over ‘Miles Away’ without a doubt. A much more inventive song that would have been a nice change on the global charts, and would have performed much better.

Madonna - Incredible (Full Song)
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What do you think?

More fest updates.

I know it is Music Tuesday, but it is also festival time.

May it be time to update my predictions already?

I just did them!

Well there are three more films which have emerged from the festival circuit as ones to watch. This, mind you, is all from my constantly reading Variety as my source. I trust the reviewers there, and do think it gives a good jumping off point to further investigate a films merits.

However they have singled out 3 films over the past few hours.

Firstly we have Samuel Maoz’s ‘Lebanon’ which could very easily be a serious foreign film nominee with reviews like this:

“Visceral, torn-from-the-memory filmmaking that packs every punch except one to the heart, "Lebanon" is the boldest and best of the recent mini-wave of Israeli pics ("Beaufort," "Waltz With Bashir") set during conflicts between the two countries. Ironically, writer-director Samuel Maoz's pic, 99.9% of which is set within an Israeli tank, actually has the least to do with Lebanon per se. The story could be set in any tank, any country, any war -- a cinematic Kammerspiel that's as much a formal challenge for its creator as it is a claustrophobic experience for audiences.”

War films do not usually do well with the Academy, unless they are in the foreign category.

Next we have ‘I Am Love’ or ‘Lo sono l’amore’ from Italian helmer Luca Guadagnino. What has interested me most about the reviews for this is that they all single out Tilda Swinton (natuarally):

”Swinton (who first collaborated with Guadagnino in his 1999 debut, "The Protagonists") does more than mechanically master the Russian-inflected Italian dialogue; she brings the full weight of her creative physical force to bear on Emma.”

Could she win the Actress award at Venice? This is possible but Oscar chaces are probably not so likely unless the reviews for her performance become rabid.

Over at Telluride, we have the premier of ‘The Last Station’ which has been one of those films of the season where no one knows if it will ever be released or if it is any good.
It has shown now, and the film is good, if not great, but what it has going for it is two very good lead performances from Christopher Plummer (over due for a nomination from Oscar) and Helen Mirren, which could be enough to get it a late release date:

“in Plummer's seductive, appealingly naturalistic performance, instantly emerges as a real man, not as a self-important legend……There is, impressively, virtually no ham in Plummer's work here, just stature and humanity.”

And for Mirren:

“She's a lusty, mercurial, demonstrative and intelligent woman, a perfect fit for Mirren, who fleshes out those traits and more with judicious abandon.”

These seem the most likely to transfer into Oscar at the moment. I never ever try and guess the foreign film category as they constantly screw it up. If ‘The Last Station’ get distribution, I will put these two in the running.

The Festival time

From the Venice /Telluride festivals we are slowly getting some major buzz buzzy buzz buzz about the films and actors that are going to be seriously seeking end of year awards recognition.
It appears Jason Reitman has hit it home again with ‘Up in the Air’ (pictured). This looks likely to be in the top ten Best Picture nominees come Oscar time. It also nearly, at this moment, cements the nomination for George Clooney for lead actor (say it is his best work yet) and gives Vera Farmiga serious traction in the supporting actress category, especially when Variety says this”

“Impeccably groomed and with a ready answer to almost any remark anyone can throw at him, Clooney owns his role in the way first-rate film stars can, so infusing the character with his own persona that everything he does seems natural and right. The timing in the Clooney-Farmiga scenes is like splendid tennis, with each player surprising the other with shots but keeping the rally going to breathtaking duration.”

Unless the competition turns extremely fierce nearer to the end of the year, this seems like a safe bet.

Also getting great notices is ‘Capitalism: A Love Story’ by Michael Moore. It is an apparent return to form up there with ‘Bowling for Columbine and ‘Fahrenheit 9/11’ that could see it nominated in the top ten for Best Picture.

At Venice ‘The Informant!’ showed and the word for the film and especially Matt Damon is very good indeed – so look for him to perhaps make a splash in the race.

Although Todd McCarthy at Variety hated ‘The Road’ there have been some reviews saying the film is great.
Its art direction has been praised highly as has Viggo Mortensens’ performance.
Sure the negative reviews have hurt it a bit, but it is still in the game, just probably not as a Best Picture contender, most likely technical and lead actor.

This is probably the most exciting time in the awards season. When the Venice, Telluride and Toronto festivals coinside you really get a strong picture of who are the real contenders and who is just wishful thinking.

Venice, if an acting prize goes to an actor for an English speaking role (or well known foreign actors who do films in English) then they will have serious awards traction. Maybe not for the win, but a nomination is quite likely.

At Toronto all eyes will be on the Peoples Choice Award. It could go to any number of films. If ‘Precious’ wins that award, then it will become a major threat.
However, it is up against these films: ‘Bright Star’, ‘The Boys are Back’, ‘Broken Embraces’, ‘Capitalism: A Love Story’, ‘Fish Tank’, ‘An Education, ‘The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus’, ‘The Informant!’, ‘The Invention of Lying’, ‘Leaves of Grass’, ‘London River’, ‘Life During Wartime’, ‘The Men Who Stare at Goats’, ‘Mr. Nobody’, ‘The Road’, ‘A Serious Man’, ‘A Single Man’, ‘Up in the Air’, ‘The Vinter’s Luck’, and basically any other film out there that could come along and surprise.

In a few weeks time we will have a much clearer picture, then it is the home stretch and the unveiling of some of the year end big guns. All in all a very exciting time to be Oscar watching. Also, these festivals may hold a key to potential surprises, especially in the acting categories.

I for one will be paying specific attention to how the following performances are received, and if they can find their way into the race.

Clive Owen – ‘The Boys are Back’
Katie Jarvis – ‘Fish Tank’
Edward Norton – ‘Leaves of Grass’
Brenda Blethyn – ‘London River’
Allison Janney – ‘Life During Wartime’
Jared Leto – ‘Mr. Nobody’
Sarah Polley – ‘Mr. Nobody’
Julianne Moore – ‘A Single Man’
Keisha Castle Hughes – ‘The Vinter’s Luck’

Best Supporting Actress Predictions

1 Mo’Nique – ‘Precious’
This is still one of the performances that is gaining in Buzz. From the Sundance win to the reviews means this is going to be unless something horrendous happens. Right now this is also looking like the performance that is going to win. Why is Best Supporting Actress always like this?


2 Anne Kendrick - 'Up in the Air'
The toss up between Vera Farmiga and Kendrick has gone on for so long.
From what I gather Kandricks is the more obvious nominatable role in the film.
Right now she looks good to receive her first nomination being young and pretty, but things can change. She could steal it from Mo'Nique.


3 Julianne Moore - 'A Single Man'
Is said to be wonderful in a smallish role.
She is owed an Oscar and may have been some competition to Mo'Nique for the win, but I really cannot believe there will be performances as good as the 'Precious' women this year.
Moore will land her 5th Oscar nomination but a win will depend on if the Academy feels they owe her at anothers expense.


4 Samantha Morton - 'The Messenger'
The film is getting great reviews, and she has been singled out, however her performances tend to be sometimes to understated to be noticed for awards consideration. However this constantly reliable actress has great support in the Academy. The film is playing extremely well and she is riding that wave for now.


5 Marion Cotillard - 'Nine'
The film was met with great to ok reviews, but she was what everyone agreed on. A recent winner so she is fresh in people's memory. However had she campaigned in supporting for 'Nine' then she would definitely get a nomination, as it is she could easily loose out on both, but I have a hunch the Academy may fix this. It is a 4 way battle for the last 2 slots.


6 Penélope Cruz – ‘Nine’
Another one having a stellar year. She could be a double nominee, which is unlikely, but who knows. She has the fun sexy vibrant role in the film which plays well opposite Cotillard's likely nom. This also seems likely unless the Academy are a little board with sexy and vibrant from her.


7 Vera Farmiga – ‘Up in the Air’
She is said to be fantastic in the film.
She has been looking for the break out role for ages, and every year since ‘The Departed’ her name has been thrown about in the early predictions, but it never seems to come into fruition . Could it be now?


8 Susan Sarandon – ‘The Lovely Bones’
It is about time she was welcomed back to the group. She has not been given the roles she deserve of late, but it is time for her to make a comeback. I cannot remember much about the role in the book (perhaps a re-read is in order) but judging by the trailer she seems to be a very important character with more dialogue than Weisz.


9 Mariah Carey – ‘Precious’
Think me mad, but if the film is really loved and sticks with voters (remember that voters are getting younger and younger and more cinematically open) her small but important role could see her nominated.
She is in one of the most powerful scenes at the end of the film and is said to hold her own and be VERY effective as a counselor.


10 Judi Dench - 'Nine'
She is supposed to be one of the better performances in the film, and after all, it is Judi Dench and she has been nominated for much much less before.
This category is getting very crowded all of a sudden with women vying for one of four nominations. Judi's pedigree could see her rise to the top of the pile.


11 Mélanie Laurent - 'Inglourious Basterds'
She has arguably the lead role in the film, which helps in this category A LOT! Plus she has some superb scenes as the stand out. The film is really loved by some people, but I feel it is too hard to read right now. As the Awards race goes on we will get a better picture, for now she is going to have to fight for it.


12 Rosamund Pike - 'An Education'
For me, the best thing in the film. She plays dumb with such a patronizing intelligence you wish you could find out more about her.
This is unlikely, but I think she will be getting a few votes come nomination time, but it will not likely amount to much, unless she gets out there.


13 Emma Thompson – ‘An Education’
Beloved actress, who is so good in everything she does. The role is supposed to be very small, but she owns it, and is very memorable.
If the films gets swept up in the awards juggernaut, she could very wel be in with a fighting chance. Even her line in the trailer makes me want to nominate her.

Best Supporting Actor Predictions

Christopher Waltz – ‘Inglourious Basterds’
He is best in show and has already won the actor prize at the Cannes Film Festival for this.
He could very well win the thing, but the nomination is pretty much assured with everyone saying he is brilliant.
Plus, this category LOVES villains.


Stanley Tucci – ‘The Lovely Bones’
Another villainous role for a long respected actor. Not only will he have good will from ‘The Devil Wears Prada’, but also from ‘Julie & Julia’ where he is said to be equally wonderful. Playing this completely against recent ‘type’ could easily bag him a nomination and the win.


Matt Damon – ‘Invictus’
Another potential double nominee this year. Clint does wonders for his actors, and this looks like no exception. Clint has gotten three Supporting actor nominees in the past 10 years, and two wins. He needs to remain in supporting. However if ‘The Informant’ crashes he could switch to lead.


Alfred Molina – ‘An Education’
Long respected actor in a film that is supposed to be wonderful.
He plays the father of the lead and is said to be wonderful and funny and a scene stealer which the Academy LOVES.
The film needs to go over in a big way first, which seems likely as of now.


Anthony Mackie – ‘The Hurt Locker’
He was nominated for the Independent Spirit Award for his role in this and he is also a respected actor with some very interesting parts under his belt. He is said to be very very good with a major Oscar scene, which as we all know is sometimes enough to get that nomination.


Peter Capaldi – ‘In The Loop’
People who have seen the film say he is by far best in show. A total riot and scene stealer. How well do political satires do at the Oscars though, especially small independent ones which are British? This will need some serious campaign muscle and be loved on screeners to get the nom.


Richard Kind – ‘A Serious Man’
Another case of a character actor getting traction based on nothing more than the films pedigree. However he is a reliable character actor who has no trouble letting go for a role. The role is supposed to be a lot of fun, but how well do Coen brothers films do with the Oscars when they are comedies?


Peter Sarsgaard – ‘An Education’
Why, or why has this man never been nominated? He is such a good actor. This seems like a likely nomination, only if the film hits with the Academy in a BIG BIG way. Although Alfred Molina seems more likely right now, all will depend on the coming reviews.


Mark Wahlberg – ‘The Lovely Bones’
Playing a grieving father should tug at the heart strings, however the major problem is the only advanced word in terms of acting is for Soairse Ronan. There is no buzz for anyone else. He has the second largest role in the book, and could go lead, but I think he will stay here.


Jeff Bridges – ‘The Men Who Stare at Goats’
A complete random prediction based solely on the fact he is loved and looks like a lot of fun in the trailer.
They have nominated well loved actors for much less.
Is the film goes down well he could very well be a surprise nominee.